Desert dust warming exceeds model estimates

A recent study by Kok, J.F. et al. investigates how desert dust affects Earth’s climate through interactions with longwave radiation. Using a model based on observational data, the authors estimate that dust produces a global longwave radiative warming effect* of +0.25 ± 0.06 W m⁻², nearly twice the value represented in most climate models. The discrepancy arises because many models neglect longwave scattering and underestimate the abundance of super-coarse dust particles. These limitations lead to biases in simulated surface energy balance, clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation. 

While the overall net radiative effect* of dust remains uncertain at the global scale, the results show that accurately representing dust–radiation interactions is essential for reliable climate and weather predictions.

*Radiative effect refers to the change in Earth’s energy balance caused by a substance or process altering incoming or outgoing radiation, leading to either warming or cooling.

Predictions from the data-driven analytical model reproduce the magnitude and variability of observational estimates based primarily on in situ measurements (colored circles) and satellite data (colored squares). The LW DREE is largest near dust source regions (primarily deserts), where the dust size distribution is coarsest, and during spring (b) and summer (c), when the surface is warmest, and the dust is elevated by stronger convection. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-70952-9